Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
